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The 2025-26 NBA season tips off on Tuesday, Oct. 21, giving fantasy basketball managers now are running out of time to finalize their 2025 NBA fantasy basketball strategy. The latest Fantasy basketball ADP rankings list Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Victor Wembanyama as the top consensus picks heading into the new season. With heavy offseason roster movement including notable players like Kevin Durant, Myles Turner, Kristaps Porzingis and Michael Porter Jr. changing teams, there has been significant fluctuations in the 2025 fantasy basketball position rankings.

Players in new roles often see significant swings in production compared to returning veterans, meaning they could just as easily emerge as breakout sleepers as potential busts. Who should you target as potential fantasy basketball sleepers and breakout candidates? And which players have the potential to be 2025 fantasy basketball busts? Before making any 2025-26 Fantasy basketball picks, be sure to check out the 2025 Fantasy basketball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

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SportsLine’s proven model simulates each season 10,0000 times. This model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. These cheat sheets and rankings, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day. 

Last year the model called a breakout season for Stephon Castle, predicting that he would finish 25 spots ahead of consensus ADP at his position. The result: Castle won NBA Rookie of the year honors after averaging 14.7 points, 4.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game and finished as the No. 51 guard in average Fantasy points per game. The model also nailed James Harden as a sleeper last year before he put together his first All-Star season in three years and called Paolo Banchero’s and Victor Wembanyama’s breakout seasons before they went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors as well.

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NBA season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy basketball rankings 2025-26, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see these 2025-26 Fantasy basketball rankings. 

Top 2025 Fantasy basketball sleepers 

One of the top 2025 Fantasy basketball sleepers the model is predicting: Bucks guard Kevin Porter Jr. A trade deadline acquisition by Milwaukee last year, Porter posted per-36 minute averages of 21.2 points, 7.1 rebounds and 6.7 assists with the Bucks. That’s on par with what the likes of Scottie Barnes and Desmond Bane averaged last year on the same per-36 minute basis. While Barnes and Bane are both top-50 draft picks, per 2025 Fantasy basketball ADP, Porter is a steal who’s going outside the top 70.

He could certainly push for 36 minutes per night with Milwaukee ridding itself of Damian Lillard, who averaged 36.1 minutes in 2024-25. Outside of Porter and Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks don’t have a single player on their roster who averaged even 3.0 assists last year, so Porter’s playmaking will certainly be needed. It was in the 2022-23 season that Porter averaged 19.2 points, 5.7 assists and 5.3 rebounds with Houston, and it’s not outside the realm of possibilities to see him matching those numbers this season. See more Fantasy basketball sleepers 2025 here.

Top 2025 Fantasy basketball breakouts 

One of the 2025 Fantasy basketball breakouts the model has identified: Jazz point guard Isaiah Collier, who has an ADP of No. 137 overall. The former No. 1 overall recruit was the penultimate pick in the first round of last year’s draft and began his rookie year as a reserve. He quickly ascended to the starting point guard position and upped his scoring average over each of the last four months of the season. He also averaged 6.3 assists for the season, which was 16th in the NBA as he was the only first-year player to rank in the top 50 in assists.

Coming off a franchise-worst 65-loss season, Utah is clearly in its rebuilding phase, and Collier is one of the cornerstones of that effort. Thus, he will be given lots of court time to establish himself as, potentially, Utah’s point guard of both the present and the future. Add in that he plays for a Jazz team which loves to get up and down the court — ranking fifth in pace last year — and Collier is poised to pile up stats and make a name for himself this season. Identify other Fantasy basketball breakouts 2025 here.

Top 2025 Fantasy basketball busts

As for players to avoid, the model lists Pelicans guard Jordan Poole as a Fantasy basketball bust. At just 26 years old, Poole was a key piece in a blockbuster Wizards-Pelicans trade this offseason, landing in New Orleans in exchange for CJ McCollum, Kelly Olynyk, and future picks. ast season in Washington, Poole averaged a career-best 20.5 points, 4.5 assists, and 3.0 rebounds across 68 games while shooting 43.2% from the field and 37.8% from three.

Poole’s usage rate ranked among the top 20 guards in the league last season, yet his efficiency metrics — including a 52.6 true shooting percentage — were below league average. With New Orleans adding lottery picks Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears, as well as emphasizing ball movement and defense under head coach Willie Green, Poole’s scoring volume could decline as the season progresses. He’s currently being drafted in the seventh round of most Fantasy leagues, but the model suggests that veteran guards like Jrue Holiday and Immanuel Quickley, both typically selected later, project as better overall values in standard formats. Avoid these 2025 Fantasy basketball busts as well.

How to find proven 2025-26 Fantasy basketball rankings

SportsLine is also extremely high on a surprising forward you aren’t even thinking about being taken in the early rounds of 2025 Fantasy basketball drafts. This player is a top-3 Fantasy option at his position and is ranked ahead of stars like Kevin Durant and Paolo Banchero. You can only see who it is, and the 2025 Fantasy basketball rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2025-26 Fantasy basketball sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which forward shocks the NBA as a top-3 player in positional rankings? Visit SportsLine now to get 2025-26 Fantasy basketball cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that’s nailed its Fantasy basketball picks, and find out.