Jordan has long been a model of stability in the Middle East, but that looks set to change news

Sitting in Wadi Araba under the blazing midday sun, senior Jordanian officials and their Israeli counterparts signed the declaration historic peace agreement in 1994, which ended a long time of conflict between the two countries. It was the second peace agreement that Israel had signed with an Arab country, witnessed by then-US President Bill Clinton, greater than a decade after peace was made with Egypt.

At the same time, artillery fire from southern Lebanon in protest hit targets in northern Israel, with the shelling attributed to Hezbollah, the Lebanese Party of God. Now, 30 years later, Hezbollah dam northern Israel continues in the face of the devastating conflict in Gaza and the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. People throughout Jordan feel this manner taken to the streets demanding that King Abdullah tear up the peace agreement.

Jordan has long been seen as a pillar of stability in the Middle East. He is an ally of the US and cooperated with Washington during the War on Terror, while other Arab states were deeply opposed. However, the Hashemite kingdom currently finds itself in a precarious situation.

Since the bombing of Gaza began in October 2023, anti-Israel sentiment has increased dramatically across the Arab world. This anger was felt strongly in Jordan.

The country provided shelter to many Palestinians who were displaced from their ancestral homes in 1948 – an event generally known as the Nakba. And Jordan is now home to estimators 3 tens of millions Palestinians. This means that events in the West Bank and Gaza have reverberations in Jordan.

The pressure is rising

While there have been demonstrations across Jordan since the starting of the Israeli bombing, they’ve intensified in recent weeks. Since March 24, protests have been occurring in the capital of Jordan, Amman (including outside Jordan). Israeli Embassy), in addition to in Karak and Irbid.

The protests began as an expression of support for Hamas and opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza. But protesters are starting to direct their anger at the Hashemite court, the administrative and political link between the king and the Jordanian state.

They called for an end to the peace agreement, a halt to exports of goods to Israel and a severance of diplomatic relations with Israel. These moves are almost not possible considering Jordan reliance with the help of the US, a key ally of Israel. However, the pressure on the Hashemite court is undoubtedly growing.

Protesters expressed anger over the events in Gaza, in addition to fear that Jordan could be affected by the forced displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza. These fears will not be groundless, as the events of 1948 show. Perhaps much more disturbing are the Hashemite court accusations by some protesters that the king was “in cahoots” with the Israelis.

Jordanian police during a demonstration near the Israeli embassy in Amman.
Mohammad Ali/EPA

Fearing an escalation of the protests, the Jordanian government is trying to limit them. Clashes between protesters and security forces broke out near the Israeli embassy and the Baqaa refugee camp arrestssparking criticism from human rights groups and increasing anger amongst people on the streets.

Pressure on the Jordanian state can be growing from other sources. Funding for the UN aid agency Unrwa has been cut amid allegations that its staff were involved in the October 7 attacks. Jordan has been directly affected as Unrwa provides essential services to over 2 million refugees in the kingdom.

Regional instability

Jordan’s geographic location in the heart of the Middle East means that unrest in the Hashemite kingdom poses a serious challenge to neighboring states, especially Saudi Arabia and Egypt. On April 5, the heir to the throne of Saudi Arabia and de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman called King Abdullah and expressed Saudi Arabia’s support for the measures taken by the Government of Jordan to maintain Jordan’s security and stability.”

Regional news outlets have also come out against protesters, portraying them as Iranian or Islamist puppets. Opinion in Al-Arabiya he argued that “Islamist groups want to profit from (ongoing protests in Jordan) … and recreate the revolutions of the Arab Spring.” The Arab Spring was a wave of pro-democracy protests and uprisings that took place across the Middle East and North Africa in 2010 and 2011, difficult some of the region’s entrenched authoritarian regimes.

At Asharq Al-Awsat, former editor-in-chief Tariq Al-Homayed: he suggested that the unrest in Jordan would enable Iran to extend its supply lines to the Mediterranean, giving Iran “a foothold on the border between Saudi Arabia and Egypt.” Another newspaper “Okaz” taken over that the unrest in Jordan was part of “Iran’s project to expand Tehran’s influence” in the Middle East.

Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ali Khamenei.
Kremlin Pool / Alamy Photo

This combination of Islamist and Iranian threats could appear counterintuitive given their different political and sectarian characteristics. Islamists similar to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood follow Sunni Islam, while Iran sees itself as a leading Shiite power. However, after the Gaza war began and the contours of regional politics modified, the two camps became increasingly close.

The common anti-Israel stance is where the two sides come together. These were Islamist groups in addition to individuals utilized by some as a means of countering the Shiites and, consequently, Iran’s gains after the 2011 Arab uprisings.

However, in recent years, Islamist groups similar to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood have been watched considered the fundamental threat to internal and regional security from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries due to their long-standing criticism of the rulers in Riyad and Abu Dhabi.

As the Middle East moves away from its eventful days normalization that characterised the spring and summer of 2023, Jordan stays on the precipice. Bringing peace to Gaza is a needed step toward reducing tensions in the Hashemite kingdom, but this alone is probably going to be insufficient.