A former Pakistan captain, Mohammad Rizwan, once famously said about his team that they “either win or learn”. While there is an inherent truth to that, the quote has taken on a life of its own, weaponised by critics of the national side both within Pakistan and outside it, to lampoon the team when it is undergoing a period of sustained failure.

In this Asia Cup, Pakistan have won every game bar the two they played against India. With the sides set to meet for a winner-takes-all third time in the final, India’s two comprehensive victories over Pakistan mean the best Salman Ali Agha’s team can hope for is focus on the few things they have learned across those two matches.

No room to consolidate

Pakistan have had it drilled into them that the powerplay is a time of maximum aggression. They didn’t lack in intent during the fielding restrictions in either game against India, but invariably, India have found a way to tip the Pakistan innings over into quicksand. On the first Sunday, it came immediately following the powerplay, with the next four overs producing just seven runs as Pakistan shrank in the face of India’s lethally accurate spinners.

On the following Sunday, Pakistan avoided getting sucked into that void, going after the spinners and scoring 36 runs, including four sixes, in the four overs after the field spread out. However, the wicket of Saim Ayub, followed by some curious decisions in the batting order, resulted in a slowdown following the halfway mark. The seven overs that came after drinks saw Pakistan score just 38, the fewest by any side all tournament in that phase. It resulted in what appeared to be a 190-200 total petering out at 171, and India chasing comfortably once more.

The final will carry its own pressure, but that does not detract from Pakistan’s goal; if they are setting a target, they will have to go all out all the time. It is what makes their task so unenviably hard, but as the previous two games have shown, no other path leads to victory.

India’s soft underbelly

Pakistan didn’t get to go too deep into India’s batting order in either of the games, as almost all the damage India did to Pakistan occurred at the top. This has been a recurring theme in almost all of India’s matches, which means No. 6 and lower have had limited exposure in this Asia Cup.

More intriguingly, what little time the lower order spent at the crease hasn’t been nearly as explosive as their upper-order counterparts. In the Super Fours, each of the three games saw India slow down once the top order was gone. Against Bangladesh, the last nine overs produced 56 runs, with just one player outside the openers registering a strike rate over 100. The fall of the third wicket, that of Abhishek Sharma against Pakistan, saw India slow down in pursuit of 174, with the next 28 balls producing just 30 runs.

Spanning out across all teams, India’s batters from Nos. 6-11 have faced the fewest deliveries among the five Full Member teams this tournament. Notably, they have also been the slowest scorers among those five sides, with a strike rate of 110.58.

Pakistan, meanwhile, are the second-fastest at 142.48. Their last six batters have also, by far, faced the most deliveries – nearly three times India’s number. While that is down at least partially to misfiring openers, Pakistan will draw hope from a belief that an off day for India’s openers represents a much bigger problem for them than a similar failure for Pakistan’s own openers.

Afridi has grown into this tournament. The last two games, both must-win matches for Pakistan, saw him take three wickets each. Agha kept Afridi on for three overs in the powerplay in those two games, and he took that once-customary first-over wicket both times. Afridi is now the joint second-highest wicket-taker in this Asia Cup.

None of those nine wickets, though, have come against India, who have smashed 63 runs off his 5.5 overs across the two games. In fact, since that famous Player-of-the-Match performance in Pakistan’s ten-wicket victory over India at the 2021 T20 World Cup, Afridi against India has been cannon fodder, with just one wicket in nearly 14 overs across four matches.

Even including his performance in that famous victory in Dubai, where he took 3 for 31 – that featured the early wickets of Rohit Sharma and KL Rahul – Afridi’s T20I figures against India make for grim reading, with four wickets at 39.25. Afridi has a worse strike rate and average against India than against any other side he has played at least twice, and his economy rate of 8.80 is the second worst – just behind the 9.06 he has against Australia.

These numbers from Pakistan’s frontline seam bowler are not conducive to Pakistan’s chances of an upset in the Asia Cup final. This is particularly true due to India’s reliance on their openers, and their tendency to fly to fast starts. In the two games this tournament, Abhishek hit Afridi for a four and a six off his first two balls in the group game, and a first-ball six in the Super Fours. Whether Afridi can keep his streak of first-over wickets alive might ultimately prove crucial to Pakistan’s ultimate hopes.

The pressure isn’t on Pakistan

This is perhaps the most vital thing those two matches should teach Pakistan. India have been curiously eager to take the pressure off Pakistan, with captain Suryakumar Yadav suggesting that recent results meant India vs Pakistan wasn’t even a rivalry anymore. On some level, this is obviously not true; an India-Pakistan rivalry has never been contingent to the specific merits or weaknesses of their on-field ability, with each side enjoying extended dominance across history without diminishing the game’s status as one between arch-rivals. But on another, India demonstrated that if they bring their best, there is little Pakistan can do to live with them.

Perhaps the second game showcased this even more than the first. Pakistan played close to the kind of game they were hoping to play. India were sloppy in the field, dropping several catches. Jasprit Bumrah went for more runs in the powerplay than he ever has, and the spinners copped punishment immediately after. And still India won with relative comfort.

Pakistan are off searching for an upset, not looking to complete a journey they have inexorably been riding to. Some parallels with the 2017 Champions Trophy have been brought up, where an obviously superior India side was blown away by a perfect Pakistan on the day. The five tournaments featuring more than five teams where these sides have met in the final may give Pakistan a 3-2 edge, but the Champions Trophy is an aberration. It is the only one where the result of an earlier meeting in the same competition has not replicated in the final.

Pakistan will, as Rizwan might put it, be Asia Cup champions on Sunday. Or they will learn they are the second-best team in the continent. If it turns out to be the latter, then from the T20 lows they have found themselves in over the last two years, it will not be the worst position to be in.