I am a Big 12 guy. I went to Iowa State, and I have been conditioned over time to be a defender of this conference. I’ve been through multiple rounds of conference realignment that threatened my school’s existence in power conference football. I’ve heard countless chatter from schools that don’t win anything in the Big Ten about how bad the Big 12 is. College athletics in 2025 have caused fans to become more tribal than I would prefer. I shouldn’t want to see Kansas State Utah West Virginia to do well, but I have to. Maybe what I’m about to say is coming from a place of hope, but it feels like the tide might be turning against the Big Ten a little bit with respect to our standing and theirs. The Big Ten has been riding high on the backs of a couple of big brands (Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State). The battle of what success looks like for everyone else is becoming unclear. National voices are even taking notice, just a little bit. UCLA fired their coach last week after an 0-3 start, and the discussion around the job is how difficult it is. Sitting head coaches at Big 12 schools are not interested in going there, just because it is in the “Power 2”. Wisconsin is in absolute hell right now. The Badgers have gone from Rose Bowl fixtures to losing seasons, even after hiring the hot shot coach. How are they going to convince anyone to take on that job, other than the paycheck they can offer?
The Big Ten and their huge brands are getting frustrated with the TV partners. What is the biggest complaint Ohio State has? They are tired of all the important games starting at 11:00 on Fox. CBS cannot be happy with accepting the 3rd best Big Ten game, featuring the Illinois, Iowa, and Purdues of the world as the replacement for the top SEC package. It’s been a constant refrain since the last round of realignment that “someone has to lose the games”. Plenty of schools decided that the money for athletic departments is more important than being competitive. Not here in the Big 12. Everyone is on the same level, and building a winning program with a slightly smaller paycheck is a lot more fun. I can only hope this trend continues as the middle/lower class get more frustrated, and TV networks take notice.
Ok, now let’s talk some gambling. Last week I was extremely confident in my picks, and I got crushed. That’s just how this goes. I will get back on track though. Instead of being intimidated, it turns out, I love the board again this week. Let’s all make some money before walking into Jack Trice Stadium for the White Out on Saturday!
THE GAMES
#24 TCU (3-0, 0-0) at Arizona State (3-1, 1-0)
Kickoff: Friday 8:00pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Arizona State -3 | O/U: 54.5
Here we start off with a very fun matchup. What instantly stood out to me is that the unranked team is favored at home against a ranked team. The radar is going off in my head. That’s a trend to follow. Take ASU who threw us off the scent after losing to Mississippi State but has righted the ship.
Pick: Arizona State -3
Houston (3-0) at Oregon State (0-4)
Kickoff: Friday 9:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Houston -13.5 | O/U: 47.5
On the other hand, this Friday nighter is stinky and gross. It’s asking a lot from Houston to travel West, play late at night, and win by more than 2 touchdowns. I see this as a classic home team getting too many points.
Pick: Oregon State +13.5
Cincinnati (2-1, 0-0) at Kansas (3-1, 1-0)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: TNT | The Line: Kansas -4.5 | O/U: 57.5
This line stinks out loud, but then again, Cincinnati does too. I really like this Kansas team from a betting perspective. Last week was an easy winner, and I continue to be unimpressed by anything Cincy does. Kansas should be favored by much more than this.
Pick: Kansas -4.5
Central Florida (3-0, 0-0) at Kansas State (1-3, 0-1)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Kansas State -6 | O/U: 49.5
Anyone else every look at a game and instantly know there’s no way you can pick it ATS correctly? This is the one for me this week. Avery Johnson is going to break out at some point this year if they let him run the ball. Why not now?
Pick: Over 49.5
Utah (3-1, 0-1) at West Virginia (2-2, 0-1)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Utah -12.5 | O/U: 47.5
What a letdown by the Utes last week. I am still struggling to figure out how they got dominated on the line of scrimmage in a home game. West Virginia stinks, like really bad. There’s no way they want to deal with a pissed off o-line wanting to punish someone.
Pick: Utah -12.5
Baylor (2-2, 0-1) at Oklahoma State (1-2, 0-0)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Baylor -21 | O/U: 58.5
One of my favorite bets to make is the team fresh off a coach firing. What’s important is who the interim coach is. Okie State is being led by Doug Meacham, the offensive coordinator. Let’s get a look at him.
That looks trustworthy enough to me. Hold your nose and take the points.
Pick: Oklahoma State +21
Arizona (3-0, 0-0) at #14 Iowa State (4-0, 1-0)
Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Iowa State -6 | O/U: 48.5
I will do something I rarely do in this column, and recommend betting on Iowa State here. I really like our offense in this spot against Arizona’s defense. And of course, we cannot underestimate the value of having 14 days of rest to prepare for this one. Arizona is surprisingly pretty good, but Iowa State has enough to win by a touchdown in the best home atmosphere of the year.
Pick: Iowa State -6
#25 BYU (3-0, 0-0) at Colorado (2-2, 0-1)
Kickoff: 9:15pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: BYU -6.5 | O/U: 49.5
BYU’s defense is very good. Colorado’s offense is still unreliable. BYU is starting a freshman QB. I know they cruised last week, but Boulder at night is a much more intimidating place. It’ll be close, and low scoring.
Pick: Under 49.5
BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY
LSU/Ole Miss Over 56.5
Well, Lane did say so!
Enjoy the games!
Season Record: 20-18 (+0.2 units)