The NFL delivers wall-to-wall betting opportunities, but the edge comes from spotting where the sportsbooks are mispriced. Each week, FTN highlights a free NFL bet of the week, powered by our proprietary betting model that simulates every game 10,000 times. Below you’ll find our top play for this week, complete with true odds, expected win percentage, and analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

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The Browns may be 0-4 and starting a new QB, but there’s reasons to be optimistic about them heading into this matchup. For Cleveland, it’s all about the defense. They rank second in defensive DVOA this year and are allowing the fewest yards per game at just 222.5. On offense, while they’re struggling overall, they may have found something in running back Quinshon Judkins. Despite missing Week 1, he’s second among rookies with 237 rushing yards this season and is 14th among running backs at 4.8 yards per carry. The Browns are facing a Vikings team that is recovering from a rough outing against the Steelers. Particularly troubling was the run defense, which allowed Kenneth Gainwell to put up the best numbers of his career. If the defense shows up as expected and Judkins finds success, the Browns could come away with the win despite being an underdog.

So with that, our best bet for this week is the Browns moneyline, which is +165 on BetMGM.

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NFL betting is about finding small edges that add up over the course of the season. FTN’s Bet of the Week is just one example of the actionable insights our model delivers. Lock in this week’s best bet, and check back every week for the next free NFL best play.