Everything is magnified in the postseason. Every pitch is significant. Every base runner matters. Because of this, the leashes for all pitchers are shorter than the regular season, especially for starting pitchers. Pitch counts matter less in the postseason than they do throughout the regular season, as situations dictate when it’s time for a pitcher to make his exit.
Every baserunner can feel like a rally, especially in a close game. There’s no room to let a starter try to battle his way through a tough inning. You either put up zeroes on the scoreboard, or you will quickly find yourself headed to the dugout, regardless of what inning it is.
The Phillies enter this postseason with arguably the best rotation among the postseason field. They will be able to deploy Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, and Jesús Luzardo for the first three games of the NLDS as the bye allowed them to set their rotation. The team should feel confident in sending each of those starters to the mound, but the real question is how much rope will Rob Thomson give them.
Sánchez figures to be given the most slack, as he is a presumptive NL Cy Young finalist and the ace of the Phillies staff in Zack Wheeler’s absence. He’s earned the benefit of a doubt that he can easily escape any potential jam he runs into. Suárez will likely have a similar amount of rope, as he’s been dominant in the postseason over the last few years. However, he has a tendency to allow quick death by a thousand cuts type rallies where multiple base hits fall in and all of a sudden, a few runs are across and there’s still two runners on. Look no further than his last start of the season where Suárez allowed nine hits in just 4.1 IP. It will be imperative for Thomson to correctly identify if and when one of these occurrences are coming and act accordingly.
Luzardo is the most interesting. He’s looked every bit as dominant as the top two lefties at some times and at others he’s fallen apart as soon as a runner reaches base. Ever since his nightmare pair of starts to close May and begin June, Luzardo has pitched to a 3.57 ERA in 111 IP. He closed the season strong, going 3-1 in four starts with a 3.21 ERA and averaged seven innings per start in September. But still, opponents hit .287 with an .807 OPS against Luzardo when runners were on base this season, as opposed to .213 with a .572 OPS with nobody on base. Deciding when to pull Luzardo may be the toughest tightrope walk Rob Thomson has to make this postseason.
So, what should the leash be for the Phillies starting pitchers? In what types of situations should it be time to give the Phillies starters the hook?
