The race is seen as a potential bellwether for what’s to come in the 2026 midterm elections in Congress, which could have a major impact on President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.

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A new poll shows a tight race for the New Jersey governor’s mansion as former President Barack Obama is set to speak at a Nov. 1 rally for the Democratic candidate.

Democrat Mikie Sherrill had a slight lead over her Republican rival, Jack Ciattarelli, in the AtlasIntel poll released Nov. 1. The poll of more than 1,600 likely voters in New Jersey from Oct. 25 to Oct. 30 showed Sherrill getting 50.2% of the vote compared to Ciattarelli’s 49.3%, with a 2% margin of error.

Sherrill, who previously served as a naval officer and as a federal prosecutor, currently represents a federal congressional district near Newark, New Jersey.

Ciattarelli is a former member of the state legislative assembly who lost to current Democratic Governor Phil Murphy in a closer-than-expected 51.2% to 48% governor’s race in 2021. Murphy wasn’t eligible to run again due to the state’s two-term cap on consecutive stints as governor.

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Obama is expected to join Sherrill for a rally in Newark in the evening.

President Donald Trump has endorsed Ciattarelli, but hasn’t joined him in person on the campaign trail. He did, nonetheless, join the Republican candidate for a telephone rally Oct. 24.

Ciattarelli has attracted some other big names within conservative politics to his campaign events, including Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. Fox News host Sean Hannity interviewed Ciattarelli Oct. 30 for a town hall event broadcast on the conservative television network.

The race is seen as a potential bellwether for what’s to come in the 2026 midterm elections in Congress, which could have a major impact on Trump’s ability to achieve more of his legislative agenda.

In a recent debate, Ciattarelli gave Trump an “A” for his performance so far in his second term, while Sherrill gave the president an “F.”