Don’t adjust your TV sets — this isn’t a rerun.
One of the biggest stories heading into September’s Emmy Awards was whether voters would go with their heart (The Pitt) or their head (Severance) for Best Drama Series. HBO Max’s more traditional medical show ultimately prevailed over Apple TV+’s cutting-edge sci-fi series. Based on the latest prediction data, Gold Derby is predicting a rematch at the 2026 Golden Globes. But will the outcome be the same?
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Season 1 of The Pitt leads our Golden Globe odds with a 98 percent chance of receiving a nomination for Best Drama Series. Season 2 of Severance is close behind at 96 percent. The other four likely nominees are HBO’s The White Lotus (Season 3), HBO’s The Last of Us (Season 2), Disney+’s Andor (Season 2), and Apple TV+’s The Morning Show (Season 4).
Drama Series
Contender
Odds
1.
The Pitt
97.4%
2.
Severance
95.6%
3.
The White Lotus
93.0%
4.
The Last of Us
64.2%
5.
Andor
62.9%
6.
The Morning Show
59.3%
We noted the season numbers for each series because up until 2023, the Hollywood Foreign Press was the voting body behind the Globes, and they tended to reward the newest, shiniest shows and putting them on the map. Sometimes, the awards calendar hit just right and the Globes called out dramas like House of the Dragon in 2022, The Crown in 2016, and Homeland in 2011, which all premiered after the Emmy cycle.
Other times, the Emmys get first dibs at honoring a new drama, if that series debuts between January and May, and the Globes play copycat a few months later — as with Shōgun in 2024 and The Handmaid’s Tale in 2017. The Pitt would follow the latter pattern, should it ultimately prove triumphant.
Golden Globe voters already had the chance to anoint Severance for its first season in 2022, but they went with the aforementioned Game of Thrones prequel instead. Does that mean Severance is now out of luck because Season 1 lost? Not at all! In fact, two decades ago, a similar thing happened three times in a row.
Nip/Tuck in 2004, Lost in 2005, and Grey’s Anatomy in 2006 all won Best Drama Series at the Golden Globes for their second seasons after previously losing for their first seasons. However, Severance is unique in that it took a three-year break between seasons, whereas Nip/Tuck, Lost, and Grey’s Anatomy all aired in consecutive years.
Before we continue, we must note that only so much can be inferred from past Globes history; the voting body has completely changed, with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association being replaced by the Golden Globe Foundation in 2023. (Note: Penske Media owns Gold Derby, as well as Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions in a joint venture with Eldridge.)
Succession was snubbed at the Golden Globes for Season 1, but then went on to win Best Drama Series for Seasons 2, 3, and 4. That exactly matches its Emmy trajectory. Elsewhere at the Globes, Breaking Bad prevailed on its last hurrah in 2013 despite only getting in for the first time the year prior. In other words, Severance is still very much in this race despite its previous loss.
Besides Grey’s Anatomy and Nip/Tuck, other medical dramas to win the top Golden Globe include Marcus Welby, M.D. (1969) and Medical Center (1970). But the hugely popular ER never won Best Drama Series, and holds the record for the most nominations in the category (seven) without a Globe win.
See Gold Derby’s prior story about why The Pitt wouldn’t exist without ER
For ER, Noah Wyle received three Golden Globe bids as a supporting actor, but now he’s up in the lead race for The Pitt. He plays Michael “Robby” Robinavitch on the HBO Max show, a senior attending physician at Pittsburgh Trauma Medical Center. Wyle claimed his first two career Emmys last month for producing and starring in The Pitt. Among the other actors he beat out was Severance‘s Adam Scott, a severed worker for Lumon Industries in the Macrodata Refinement (MDR) department.
When it comes to predicting Golden Globes nominations, Gold Derby has Wyle in front, followed by Scott, Gary Oldman (Slow Horses), Sterling K. Brown (Paradise), Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us), and Diego Luna (Andor). All but Luna competed at the Emmys this year for Best Drama Actor.
TV Drama Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Noah Wyle
The Pitt
97.5%
2.
Adam Scott
Severance
96.5%
3.
Gary Oldman
Slow Horses
91.6%
4.
Sterling K. Brown
Paradise
89.9%
5.
Diego Luna
Andor
86.1%
6.
Pedro Pascal
The Last of Us
68.1%
Severance won eight Emmys, including Britt Lower for Best Drama Actress and Tramell Tillman for Best Drama Supporting Actor. Lower is leading all the expected Globe nominees in that category for playing a rebellious severed employee in the MDR department at Lumon. Her closest competitor is Kathy Bates (Matlock), who many pundits thought would take home the Emmy Award.
TV Drama Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Britt Lower
Severance
97.8%
2.
Kathy Bates
Matlock
95.9%
3.
Keri Russell
The Diplomat
92.0%
4.
Bella Ramsey
The Last of Us
82.0%
5.
Jennifer Aniston
The Morning Show
81.2%
6.
Carrie Coon
The Gilded Age
76.0%
As for Tillman, he ranks second behind 15-year-old Owen Cooper, the Emmy champ from the limited series Adolescence. While the Globes separate supporting television performances by gender, the genres are combined for dramas, comedies, limited series, and TV movies.
TV Supporting Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Owen Cooper
Adolescence
96.6%
2.
Tramell Tillman
Severance
96.6%
3.
Walton Goggins
The White Lotus
90.7%
4.
Ike Barinholtz
The Studio
90.2%
5.
Billy Crudup
The Morning Show
71.3%
6.
Ebon Moss-Bachrach
The Bear
51.4%
Meanwhile, after winning the Best Drama Supporting Actress Emmy for The Pitt, featured player Katherine LaNasa has been steadily rising in our Golden Globe nomination predictions, currently placing ninth. The ones to beat right now are Erin Doherty (Adolescence) and Hannah Einbinder (Hacks), the respective Emmy winners for limited and comedy.
TV Supporting Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Erin Doherty
Adolescence
96.1%
2.
Hannah Einbinder
Hacks
95.5%
3.
Carrie Coon
The White Lotus
87.6%
4.
Catherine O’Hara
The Studio
82.3%
5.
Parker Posey
The White Lotus
79.8%
6.
Jenny Slate
Dying for Sex
52.0%
7.
Laurie Metcalf
Monster: The Ed Gein Story
27.8%
8.
Allison Janney
The Diplomat
14.3%
9.
Katherine LaNasa
The Pitt
10.7%
The 2026 Golden Globe nominations will be announced Dec. 8. Make or update your predictions at Gold Derby.
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