Tex Winter, one of the 20th century’s great basketball coaches, once summed up a classic NBA paradox with five words that everything turns on a trifle. The league’s best teams often teeter on a knife’s edge, thriving thanks to continuity but in a constant state of fragility, which explains the current state of the weakened Eastern Conference.

The two favorites, who meet in a made for television opener Wednesday in New York, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Knicks at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, are in this place because of the consistency of their rosters and misfortune of fellow contenders.

Injuries open window for Cavaliers and Knicks

The gut-churning images of Damian Lillard, then Jayson Tatum and then Tyrese Haliburton, each tearing their Achilles tendons in a matter of weeks in a painful playoff stretch has provided these two teams with the most precious of NBA opportunities. The window to reach the Finals for the Cavs and Knicks, who return all of their key players with additional depth, is wide open.

For now.

The Cavs have been accelerating toward this moment for five years, amassing a team with two All NBA players, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, four players who have All Star appearances on their resumes and an impressive spread of depth that has ballooned their payroll to just under $400 million this season, including luxury taxes.

Cavaliers navigate second apron restrictions

But because of that, they have entered the nether world known as the second apron, and they are the only team currently living there. Last season, three teams were in this penal zone of tax and roster restriction, and all three fled this season by shedding key players.

No one stays in the second apron long, at least not in the new rule’s infancy. So, while the Cavs’ core players are all in their 20s, keeping this group together could well be untenable unless the team starts to win bigger and now.

The Cavs have been upset as the higher seed in two of the past three seasons in the playoffs, and last season’s second-round exit to the Indiana Pacers in five games was bitter after a 64-win season appeared to set them up for a long run.

Cleveland adds pieces to address weaknesses

Cavs president Koby Altman acknowledges they’ve set themselves up to have a runway with the guys they have. But all runways eventually run out of pavement, and the Cavs are nearing the end of theirs.

That’s why Altman traded for defensive specialist guard Lonzo Ball in the offseason and added multiple backup big men to give the Cavs some size after the Pacers exploited them inside.

Part of that is to put more offensive responsibility onto Evan Mobley’s plate. He will have the ball more this season and is expected to take another step as a playmaker after he juiced his scoring average to a career-best 18.5 points last season.

Knicks maintain continuity with coaching change

As the Celtics and Pacers, the last two Eastern Conference champions, shed key players over the summer as they faced gap years with their franchise players in long term rehab, the Knicks kept their roster intact and added to it.

Though they upgraded their depth with one of the league’s best bench scorers, Jordan Clarkson, and added energetic French forward Guerschon Yabusele, the controversial firing of coach Tom Thibodeau represents the only core personnel change.

New coach Mike Brown has brought with him a higher tempo offense that he believes will make the Knicks less predictable and ease the burden on All-NBA guard Jalen Brunson, who led the league last season in clutch scoring and dribbling.

New York’s trade limitations create urgency

The Knicks have barely but expertly dodged the second apron by relative pennies over the past two seasons, which has left open some trade options. But the six first-round picks they traded for Mikal Bridges and Karl Anthony Towns in 2024 has left them deeply invested in the current roster.

Those limited pathways first showed up in August, when talks surrounding a trade for Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo didn’t progress. One of the league’s signature stars expressed an interest in being a Knick, but the Knicks couldn’t or wouldn’t make a serious enough offer.

Which puts even more pressure on the 2025-26 Knicks, who might indeed have the best chance at a Finals run in 25 years. Towns notes the team is unified and has the continuity needed to do great things.